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What would you do?



 
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OldBear



Joined: 12 Apr 2005
Posts: 1840

PostPosted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 6:52 am    Post subject: What would you do? Reply with quote

Your playing in the 8-4 draft on modo LLM, your deck is solid but nothing special it is the first round. Your opponent has an aggressive kithkin aggro deck GW which comfortably took game 1. So Far you have seen a woodland changeling, goldmeadow harrier, avian Changeling and a mirror entity. Game 2 has gone long and you have got your opponent to 4 life, if you had won any of the three clashes you would have probably won the game but each time it was a land you had to put on the bottom. In play you have 8 land 6 forest 2 mountain a fertilid, Bosk Bannerette, orchard warden. In the Graveyard you have a fistful of force, bog ash strider, winnower patrol, kindled fury, lash out, nath’s elite. 1 mountian in hand.Your opponent has 7 lands 6 plains 1 forest, a avain changeling with two +1 +1 counters on it from a bureton bombardier, a goldmeadow harrier, an order of the Golden Cricket and a kithkin balloonists. Your opponent plays a land for the turn leaving him with 1 card in hand and attacks with the balloonists and golden cricket both flying over to but you too 7. He then indicates to pass the turn what do you do if anything, with reasoning please? Also pleas please please even if what you would do had already been said reinforce the point as it helps my gauge things thanks in advance.

Your deck

1 Incendiary Command
1 Orchard Warden
1 Bosk Bannerette
3 Battlewand Oak
1 Lashout
2 Winnower Patrol
1 Bog Ash Strider
1 Cloud crown Oak
1 Spike Tail Changeling
1 Game Trail Changeling
1 Nath’s Elite
1 Fist Full of Force
1 Gilt Leaf Ambush
1 Imperious Perfect
2 Elvish Warrior
1 Kindled Fury
1 Fertilid
1 Leaf Gilder
1 Fertile Ground
12 Forest
5 Mountain

I will give this 24 hours then give my reasoning for what I would do and what actually happened.
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bleh



Joined: 24 Apr 2005
Posts: 4

PostPosted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 8:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sacrifice the Fertilid since you'll lose next turn if you don't draw the command or a treefolk. Keeping the Fertilid would mean you could deal 1 dmg to him which is futile. Well anyway, you're in a very bad position.

EDIT: Hmm, you might as well sac it during your own turn, as you have no cards left in your library with a cc over 5. It will improve your odds of not drawing a land.

EDIT2: It's actually a close call. You still have 8 lands left in your library. If you sac it EOT, there's a chance of 6/20 to draw a land. If you don't sac it EOT, there's a chance of 5/19 drawing a land, which is slightly better.
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Avata



Joined: 03 Dec 2006
Posts: 407

PostPosted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 9:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Actually saccing the Fertilid will not reduce your chances of drawing a land, since in this particular case you know there are three lands at the bottom of your deck - pulling one land out at random is more than offset by the fact that you'll be shuffling those lands back in.
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bleh



Joined: 24 Apr 2005
Posts: 4

PostPosted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 9:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Heh overthinking it a bit. Indeed, just don't sac it. And it's pulling 2 lands out Wink.
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crossorion



Joined: 20 Mar 2008
Posts: 3

PostPosted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 2:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If you drew Command, the matter would end right there and then. If you drew creatures, you stall for a bit more time. Your opponent would probably tap down Orchard warden every turn, so you are better off using fertilid and your other guy to charge in.

He has one card in hand, chances are its either going to be a coordinated barrage or necksnap, or even gilt leaf ambush. Either way you are losing one of the two but getting in for at least that one additional point. Having clashed down 3 lands already, cracking the fertilid would probably be a terrible, terrible idea.

You need to draw the Cloudcrown Oak or Command.
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OldBear



Joined: 12 Apr 2005
Posts: 1840

PostPosted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 6:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yeah well done did not take you guys long to work this one out. You do not want to sac the fertilid because of the three lands on the bottom of your library your only decresing your odds of top decking. It actually was my opponent in my situation I was actually the GW aggro and took the game.

My opponent did sac his fertilid end of turn, which surprised me as his rating was very high about 100 points above mine and im like 1777 so not exactly low. Though I guess this is a much harder mistake to spot in game when you arent analysing information and its just an auto response thin my libary increase my top decking chances. Just goes to show perhasp that clash is a more skill intensive ability than people give it credit for.

Thanks for all the replies they are appreciated.
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