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Craziest game of Magic ever.


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sonicqaz



Joined: 02 May 2006
Posts: 338

PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2007 2:27 pm    Post subject: Craziest game of Magic ever. Reply with quote

It was the top 8 of my 30 person FNM. I was the 4 seed going up against the 5 seed. It was a Dragonstorm mirror match. The game is at about turn 5 or 6 (can't remember exactly) and my opponent starts to go off, but I remand the Seething Song, and at Eot I Gigadrowse down the last of his mana and I know I have to go off now or lose.

My board has a Calciform Pools with 4 charge counters, an Island, two Shivan Reefs, and a Steam Vents. I have a Lotus Bloom with 1 Time counter on it that is about to hit play.

My hand is D-strom, D-storm, Bogardan Hellkite, Rite of Flame, Remand. The Remand that I just played on my opps turn gave me my second copy of D-storm.

Looking at the board, I notice that with the incoming lotus, + rite + d-storm I would only be able to net 3 dragons. I notice I have the win, however, if I play rite, remand rite, and then play rite and d-storm again. I have exactly enough mana to do this.

So I procede, and Lotus Bloom comes into play. I draw my card, and it's a second Bogardan Hellkite. No worries though, I play a version with 4 Hellkites and 2 Hunted Dragons.

I play rite, remand rite, replay rite, play d-storm. I am about to grab my deck to search for dragons when i remember to draw off of remand.

3rd Hellkite comes off the top.

I put him at 3 life (we were both at 20) and pass the turn. As expected, he plays D-storm next turn and wins, getting 5 dragons from his deck.

I generally think when people blame losses on luck that they do so because they are bad players, and they don't understand the game. But I can tell you that I was almost expecting to rip that third hellkite because I am known for the worst losses.

Example #2 from the same evening included a game in which my opp is swinging with a Hippie at me. I have 7 cards in hand, and I can go off and win next turn. My opp has a 1/7 chance of getting the D-Storm, as the other cards all do not matter, because my hand is packed with rituals. I don't even think I have to tell you what the revealed card was.

In that game, in that specific situation, I had a 1 in 7 chance of losing. I cursed my luck and everyone was in general agreement that that was a pretty bad loss to take. The 1 in 7 was in my mind as I top 8ed because I thought the worst was over that evening.

So back to the bad loss in the top 8. Looking back at the cards, we figured I had 45 or 44 cards left in the deck (I had picked up my deck but we tried to recreate the scene).

If it was a 45 card deck before I drew for my turn, the chances that I would lose that game were, without exaggerating, 1 in more than 10,000 games.

And the legend of my bad beats continued...
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Teknolink
Level 1 Judge


Joined: 31 Aug 2004
Posts: 82

PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2007 2:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ehm... That was not a case of bad luck. Just a case of bad playing. For one, you GigaDrowse at the beginning of his upkeep, which is much better than you did now. Also, just get 3 hellkite, burn him for 15, and tap out his land at the beginning of his upkeep.
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sonicqaz



Joined: 02 May 2006
Posts: 338

PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2007 2:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Alright tough guy, I can't go off, and then stop him from going off next turn if he has remand (with a hand of 6 cards).

With the resources explained, go through step by step how you can get 3 hellkites AND stop him from going off the next turn.
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Splattt



Joined: 10 Oct 2006
Posts: 43

PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2007 3:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

lol scrubbing out at FNM




FTW
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Teknolink
Level 1 Judge


Joined: 31 Aug 2004
Posts: 82

PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2007 3:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

sonicqaz wrote:
Alright tough guy, I can't go off, and then stop him from going off next turn if he has remand (with a hand of 6 cards).

With the resources explained, go through step by step how you can get 3 hellkites AND stop him from going off the next turn.


Well, for one, you didn't mention anything on his board. For second, you had a remand. Just do dragonstorm for 3, keep remand mana open, and remand his next attempt. Simple.
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Apocalypser



Joined: 05 Jun 2005
Posts: 62

PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2007 3:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If you could win you should have not done that. Althought i must admit it takes a lot of bad luck to lose like that.
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Splattt



Joined: 10 Oct 2006
Posts: 43

PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2007 5:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TeknoLink wrote:

Well, for one, you didn't mention anything on his board. For second, you had a remand. Just do dragonstorm for 3, keep remand mana open, and remand his next attempt. Simple.


an even more extremely techy way to win would be

let him cast all his mana cards
let him cast dragonstorm
remand 1 or 2 of his dragonstorm copies so he only gets 3 dragons

take 15 or whatever

untap go off for 3 killing his critters

pass turn

gigadrowze his lands

AGGRO OUT FTW
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sonicqaz



Joined: 02 May 2006
Posts: 338

PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2007 5:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If he has a remand of his own on his turn, then he can go off as well. The chances of him having a remand with 6 cards in hand is higher than me hitting consecutive hellkites.

Not to mention, if I do go off for 3, I couldnt get 3 Hellkites because 2 are in hand.

You obviously go for the win in this situation when the odds of you losing are 1 in 10,000. The odds of him coming back if I dont go off for lethal that turn are much much higher.
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sonicqaz



Joined: 02 May 2006
Posts: 338

PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2007 5:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Splattt wrote:
TeknoLink wrote:

Well, for one, you didn't mention anything on his board. For second, you had a remand. Just do dragonstorm for 3, keep remand mana open, and remand his next attempt. Simple.


an even more extremely techy way to win would be

let him cast all his mana cards
let him cast dragonstorm
remand 1 or 2 of his dragonstorm copies so he only gets 3 dragons

take 15 or whatever

untap go off for 3 killing his critters

pass turn

gigadrowze his lands

AGGRO OUT FTW


If I did remand two Dragonstorm copies, the top two cards I would draw with the remands would be.....Hellkite Hellkite.

So I would end up giving him 6 2/2's while I am at 5 life. If he has a gigadrowse he would win.

So...not a very good way to try and win either....

There is a chance for me to lose no matter which way you go with this. I took the way that would only let me lose 1 in 10,000 times and it happened. There may have been a way I could have won if played differently, but I would bet a lot of money that the chances that that plan goes wrong is a lot higher than the plan I used.
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animefan8714



Joined: 01 Mar 2005
Posts: 27

PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2007 6:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The actual odds of you drawing 2 dragons in a row is about 1/172. Hardly 1/10,000 , but still not very good odds.
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gnr61



Joined: 24 Jul 2005
Posts: 19

PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2007 7:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

LoLs at 1/10,000 (not even close =/ )

nonetheless, sucks to have that kind of luck Razz
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Splattt



Joined: 10 Oct 2006
Posts: 43

PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2007 7:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

gnr61 wrote:
LoLs at 1/10,000 (not even close =/ )

nonetheless, sucks to have that kind of luck Razz


bad beats happen. i had an even crazier loss testing with a friend recently

hes playing BW aggro/control and he has Phyrexian Arena / Rack / Rack out

im at 7 with 1 card in hand (land) and a CoTH token and Watchwolf

he is at 5

his hand is empty

i pass the turn to him knowing i win next turn unless he rips a 3rd rack and a discard spell in the top 2

he takes 1 from arena

plays funeral charm

drops the 3rd rack

:\

but i have no pity for dragonstorm players.. all the countless turn 2-3 lucksack wins they pull off now he comes here crying cause he gets bad draws 1 time..
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Splattt



Joined: 10 Oct 2006
Posts: 43

PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2007 9:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

GTKID wrote:
There is 5 dragons and you drawing any 2 in a row loses you the game. 1/10,000 is an awesome guess... If you have no idea how statistics work. Go cry.


6 dragons..
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Shivan1



Joined: 14 Oct 2006
Posts: 30

PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2007 10:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

the chances that you would draw that one dragon out of a 45 card deck are exactly 1 in 45 - duh.

But as for the way you played it - I would've done exactly the same thing - you go for the win... you just got a bad beat though.
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gnr61



Joined: 24 Jul 2005
Posts: 19

PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2007 10:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Shivan1 wrote:
the chances that you would draw that one dragon out of a 45 card deck are exactly 1 in 45 - duh.

But as for the way you played it - I would've done exactly the same thing - you go for the win... you just got a bad beat though.



no. there are 3 hellkites in the 45 card deck. thats 1/15 for the first card and 1/22 for the second. thus a 1/330 chance of hitting 2 in a row, or about 0.3% - duh.
-_-
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