The Future of the Metagame (??? or !!!)

Shepherd · Joined: 18 Jan 2005 Posts: 387

Its a week away from the prerelease tourneys for Ravnica, and already there is plenty of speculation of what the metagame is going to look like. From some of the sites I've read, and some analysis I've made from them, the following can be said to happen...

1. Most mono-colored players will switch to two-color splash variants of their existing decks. White Weenie might evolve into W/G weenie or W/R weenie (with the former the more successful and the latter more popular). Mono-blue control will splash black but avoid the mill cards and stick to traditional control.

2. The four guild colors are excessively hyped, and will be thematically played in block constructed only. Constructed will find the guilds to be more like a splash addition to the deck archetypes rather than creating a new archetype.

3. There will be so many mutations and variants to gifts.dec that they will need to be renamed like variations to a chess opening... The key card will probably double in value.

4. UB Mill will succeed more as a control variant rather than a turbo combo variant. Its simply a lot harder to bring sixty cards to zero than twenty life to zero even with Traumatize and Glimpse the Unthinkable. People will keep trying, but only a few will succeed.

5. Enchantments are slowly gaining value and becoming outright game winners rather than utilities. Tempest of Light, the most underrated card of Mirrodin and 9th ed, may become a key sideboard card.

6. People playing Tooth and Nail now will either have to revert to the archetype they played before or will be lost to what kind of deck to play. While there are some cards asking to be broken, none of them have the game winning ability of the one-card combo...

7. FNMs will be playing Sealed Deck or Draft half the time just for the possibility and promise of the dual lands.

8. The Golgari (G/B) will be the most powerful of all possible two-colored combinations.

9. White remains to be one of the most powerful of individual colors, though green will still be the most played.

10. Come Guildpact, the next set of Ravnica block, the first nine predictions will automatically become false.

Regardless, I can't wait for the new set, and I'm trying to preregister for the prerelease as soon as possible.

Until then...

ant900 · Joined: 11 Oct 2004 Posts: 2476 Location: somewhere

the golgari are strong, but i think all the guilds are rather even... besides that all your asumptions are pretty much correct. do you think U/b control will use the new legendary dimir dude?

Shepherd · Joined: 18 Jan 2005 Posts: 387

There are two:

1) Circu, Dimir Lobotomist is a 2UB 2/3 that turns your blue or black spells into random Meddling Mages. Played either on his own, with Sakashima the Impostor to double the effect, or with Kira, Great Glass Spinner in order to protect it, people will probably play 2-4 copies of him. At worst, he just removes extra cards, but at best he shuts out combos and key cards while he lives.

2) Szadek, Lord of Secrets, the large vampire that gets larger every attack and sucks the library instead of the player dry, would have been nice. Everybody wants to play with this guy, but with his 8cc, he is more likely to become a sideboard addition at 2 copies max.

JLax1 · Joined: 10 Nov 2004 Posts: 294 Location: New Jersey

DrFueng · Joined: 17 Aug 2005 Posts: 187

ant900 · Joined: 11 Oct 2004 Posts: 2476 Location: somewhere

lol WW will be a lot better,the only difference is that it will have a splash of either green or red

DrFueng · Joined: 17 Aug 2005 Posts: 187

Craze · Joined: 30 Jan 2005 Posts: 5336 Location: Indiana, U

ok, lets correct a few of Shepard's points...

1. WW will not change over...in fact it just splashes...
WW/r and WW/g are the current WW decks, but they ARE dfferent from W/G and and W/R aggro. And thats where you went wrong.

MUC died...U/B Control is awful...but the colors do work together when put in a mill deck...you immediantly say:

ant900 · Joined: 11 Oct 2004 Posts: 2476 Location: somewhere

JLax1 · Joined: 10 Nov 2004 Posts: 294 Location: New Jersey

PhillipJFry · Joined: 14 Jun 2005 Posts: 34

I'm hoping you didn't come up with this list, and some pretentious Magic site that's out-of-touch did, because it's garbage.

Shepherd · Joined: 18 Jan 2005 Posts: 387

As far as ranking which color pairing will be the strongest, I still stand by my prediction of G/B. Then again, every guild (or color pairing outside of a guild) has its merits, and while each card has its own power level, it will be up to the players, pro and amateur to make the decks that will determing the power level.

As for those who have corrections to the points I came up, these are just predictions. I came up with these from this site, other sites, player experience and past PT and GP reports. I originally had only the top three predictions, but the idea of ten as a magic number came from another top ten list from MTG Salvation...

I actually enjoyed reading everyone's opinion; the following is just the reasoning behind mine. No hurt or hard feelings intended, and I don't hold anything against you all...

1. Craze, I did say W/G weenie and W/R weenie, not aggro; they will still play like White Weenie except for the color arrangement. Otherwise, we are actually in agreement with regards to White Weenie...

As for MUC, this one is a metagaming and psychology prediction. Those who play MUC (around 1/4 from where I come from) did tell me that they will go for the U/B Mill, but with the reasons and builds they were suggesting (using Szadek, eating the entire deck by turn 7, etc...) they're not going to be very happy. My prediction on MUC splash black is more on using tools like Perplex and Shadow of Doubt to assist control. As for which is better, that is something I'm not going to predict...

2. I said that the guilds will just be a splash on to the archetype. Definitely, there will be many new ones, but the four guilds will not create archetypes on their own outside of block. R/W is most likely going to be White/Red Weenie, not so different from White Weenie. Same is true for G/W. Majority will play the guilds out of marketing hype and advertised potential, but unless someone makes a huge breakthrough from the guilds, they will not be so big in constructed.

3. True, there are already plenty beforehand, but all of them are still named gifts.dec, 4-color Gifts, 5-color Gifts, etc... My prediction, simply put, is more like "there will be many new variations of Gifts that will be consistent up to the point that they might be named something like John Doe's Gifts or Gifts Denied or something like that." As for which one will be tier one, that is not my prediction anymore.

4. I've read the UB mill post here, in MTGSalvation, and in every other gaming forum; UB mill is actually the first deck I want to make come Ravnica. I said it will succeed more as a control variant because straight mill leaves you very open, since Traumatize and Glimpse are sorceries. You can still control and mill using a counterspell and Circu, Dimir Lobotomist. You can still control and mill using Induce Paranoia. Using the Doppleganger is something I agree to, but the matchup better have heavy hitters to outright win with him. With regards to matchup, I can't really say.

5. Try Priviledged Position. If someone pulls this out with an enchantment deck, you'll need Tempest of Light or a full boardsweeper. Also, try Suppression Field. True, there are even more powerful enchantments in previous sets; but its only recently that enchantments started to become a win condition. This is what the prediction is trying to cover.

8. This one is covered by my opening statement above. The way it stands, we both have a 1/4 chance within guild colors and a 1/8 chance to be correct.

9. Green will be more played simply out of habit and for color-manipulation and mana-fixing. With the emphasis of Ravnica on multiple colors, the ability to fix and acquire the right colored mana when it is needed becomes important. Your prediction on white covers the aggro point of view, but how about control and combo? You can't just ignore them simply out of lack of power (which isn't my prediction.)

10. Ok, you got me on this one. I was only serious on the top nine and I needed to round it up. I actually have a feeling that this is the first one to be proven wrong.

I wrote this one to open talks about the future of the metagame, and my predictions will probably have a less than 50% accuracy. To make the naysayers happy, I'll keep track of your comments and other predictions, and one month before Guildpact, I'll write an article with regards to which ones hit and which ones miss, as well as another top 10 prediction for Guildpact.

Until then, only seven more days to the prerelease. Best of luck to all.

Craze · Joined: 30 Jan 2005 Posts: 5336 Location: Indiana, U

ugh, more predictions that need to be corrected.

DrFueng · Joined: 17 Aug 2005 Posts: 187

They aren't predictions, Craze. They are opinions. He may say "I predict this...", but they're opinions. You of all people should know what an opinion is...you have plenty of them. Are you just trying to aggrivate him, or what? Cuz if you're not, then flaying him with sarcasm and what not isn't the way to go. Secondly, theres no way on Earth you can correct him, as everything you both say is nothing but speculation. Two blind men can't argue about the color of the sky. No one knows what the Meta is going to look like, he's just giving his opinion. You're perfectly justified in giving yours, but let's try not to start out by saying "More predictions I have to correct..." like your Omniscient, k?

NightFlare · Joined: 08 Sep 2004 Posts: 234

You're all wrong because u dont share my personal opinion duh.