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SoM T2 - A Quantitative Analysis



 
Reply to topic    Magic-League.com Forum Index -> Standard (T2) Decks
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Djinn
Level 2 Judge


Joined: 30 Mar 2004
Posts: 297

PostPosted: Wed Sep 22, 2010 10:31 am    Post subject: SoM T2 - A Quantitative Analysis Reply with quote

Hi there,

I will eventually take a look at a certain number of minis (latest 10-20 every once in a while) and keep this post updated by editing it.

The method is simple, even though it might get better if I get suggerences/easier ways to scan through. For a start, I took a look at the first 10 minis of SoM Standard (SoM + RoE + WWK + Zen + M11) and noted down the results of all the decks which did not lose their round 1. Here is the data I collected:

Mini #1
MGA Eldrazi (3-0)
Big Red (2-1) (1-1)
UB Control (1-1)

Mini #2

UW Control (3-0)
MGA Eldrazi (2-0)
Myr WW (2-1)
Big Red (1-1) (1-0)
White Weenie (1-1)

Mini #3
RDW (4-0)
UG Ramp (3-0)
UB Control (2-1)
Boros (1-1)
RG Valakut Ramp (1-1) (1-1)
WW (1-0)

Mini #4
Big Red (4-0)
RDW (3-1) (2-1) (1-1)
WW (2-1)
Goblins (1-0)
UG Mass Polymorph (1-1)
UW Control (1-1)

Mini #5
RDW (3-0)
RGu Ramp (2-1)
UG Mass Polymorph (1-0)
BG Infect (1-1)

Mini #6
Big Red (3-0)
UW Control (2-1) (1-1)
Goblins (1-1)

Mini #7
RG Valakut Ramp (3-0)
Big Red (2-1)
UW Control (1-1) (1-1)

Mini #8

RDW (3-0) (2-1) (1-1)
Big Red (1-0)

Mini #9
RDW (3-0) (1-1)
Naya Vengevine) (2-1)
RUG Vengevine (1-0)


Mini #10

UW Control (3-0)
Big Red (2-1)
RDW (1-1)
BG Infect (1-1)


Top Decks:
MGA Eldrazi (5-0)
Big Red (22-6)
RDW (24-7)
UG Ramp/Polymorph (5-1)
UW Control (12-5)
RG Valakut (5-2)
WW (4-2)
UB Control (3-2)
Myr WW (2-1)
Boros (1-1)
Goblins (2-1)
Naya Vengevine) (2-1)
RUG Vengevine (1-0)
BG Infect (2-2)


Last edited by Djinn on Wed Sep 22, 2010 10:51 am; edited 1 time in total
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Conkisstador



Joined: 08 Sep 2004
Posts: 543

PostPosted: Wed Sep 22, 2010 10:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

this is from a format that doesn't exist yet? fun...
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manachuel



Joined: 11 Dec 2005
Posts: 10

PostPosted: Wed Sep 22, 2010 10:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

hmm I think goblins is gonna be more than a casual deck without alara... I've just won a mini with them (the only one you didn't host btw) because of the meta. Excluding the most difficult MU for goblins which is bant, they should win easily against UW (speed + mark of munity on baneslayer) and casual decks. Obv we don't know yet the decks which will be created but I know that goblins can be a tier1.5< by just changing the game plan (siege-gang + dragon fodder out).
A good time is coming for goblins...

goblins goblins goblins! Arrow
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AppleofEris



Joined: 20 Dec 2006
Posts: 553

PostPosted: Wed Sep 22, 2010 11:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Do you think it's worth running Fling in Gobos?
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AlexTrebek



Joined: 24 Nov 2004
Posts: 148

PostPosted: Wed Sep 22, 2010 2:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Conkisstador wrote:
this is from a format that doesn't exist yet? fun...


Yeah.. I guess people who want to do well at the beginning of the format are idiots.
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Conkisstador



Joined: 08 Sep 2004
Posts: 543

PostPosted: Wed Sep 22, 2010 3:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

No. but people who play with 60-card spoilers are.
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Pekken
Level 3 Judge


Joined: 06 Jan 2005
Posts: 46

PostPosted: Wed Sep 22, 2010 3:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The SoM spoiler has been complete for some time now, you know.
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AlexTrebek



Joined: 24 Nov 2004
Posts: 148

PostPosted: Wed Sep 22, 2010 5:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The way you're analyzing is really bad. Taking out all the 0-1 decks is skewing your results. While it's good to take out the 0-1 decks that aren't being played anywhere else, when you remove ALL the 0-1 decks you mess with the numbers.

Mono-Red is clearly the most played deck right now but everyone who goes 0-1 with it isn't being counted so you end up with a 75% win rate which looks really good but isn't quite accurate at all.

You need someone who's willing to go through and look at matchups and analyze it that way for it to be actually useful for anyone.
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Conkisstador



Joined: 08 Sep 2004
Posts: 543

PostPosted: Wed Sep 22, 2010 5:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

"of decks that win, this is the winning rate."
think of it that way.
yes koth is played all over.
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Terri



Joined: 23 Jan 2010
Posts: 107

PostPosted: Thu Sep 23, 2010 6:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

conkisstador: "No. but people who play with 60-card spoilers are."
i can absolutely agree. i also waited til i can get the full spoiler.
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AppleofEris



Joined: 20 Dec 2006
Posts: 553

PostPosted: Thu Sep 23, 2010 5:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Speaking of which, ya need to update that.
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