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so just how much luck is involved in MTG??


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How much luck is involved in MTG
A)0%-20%
42%
 42%  [ 21 ]
B)21%-40%
34%
 34%  [ 17 ]
C)41%-60%
16%
 16%  [ 8 ]
D)61%-80%
4%
 4%  [ 2 ]
E)THE WHOLE DAMN GAME IS LUCK!!
4%
 4%  [ 2 ]
Total Votes : 50

Author Message
OldBear



Joined: 12 Apr 2005
Posts: 1840

PostPosted: Mon Mar 22, 2010 3:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

yeah u got that but it allows you to topdeck a counter and then resolve spring whilst other way round your only top deck is 1 mind spring.
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Sprouts



Joined: 15 Feb 2006
Posts: 101

PostPosted: Mon Mar 22, 2010 3:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

In that case, in having to topdeck one of ur few remaining counters, its just better to discard the lands, or maybe a land and a remove soul, and play the "you dont have a counter game", maybe he has broken ambitions and your negate will be enough. I do agree with you there are many situations where there is much more than the simple thinking,and that is also very dependent on the deck your playing, it just doesnt seem like that kind of situation to me
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OldBear



Joined: 12 Apr 2005
Posts: 1840

PostPosted: Mon Mar 22, 2010 3:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I guess depending on the quality of opposition but if someone did that to me, I would be 100% they had cruel and cryptic, which makes countering the charm the move that gives you the most outs.

My point is there are loads of situations like this where the obvious play is not correct.

I see what your saying in you think just hoping they dont have the cryptic is gonna to yield more wins than a play that doesnt get you many more wins anyway. But say this was against a top class player they are not going to try and resolve cruel with no counter in this situation at which point this play becomes right.

There are thousands of situations like this that arise in magic all the time. What we go by is past experinces of similar situations often overlooking the finer points if we auto play. HERE is when people make the mistake then come to a forum and go the play is always obvious theres no skill.

In my opinion the ability to not go into autopilot and being able to think through complicated situations like this at a very fast speed, is what seperates the top pros from all us peons.

For me i would know my opponent had cryptic and cruel for sure but in a tourni i would have been resigned to one mindspring as my only route back into the game. Which is perhasp a better point about the skill involved in magic than the orignal one i was trying to demonstrate on deductive reasoning.
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neosystems
Level 1 Judge


Joined: 22 Feb 2009
Posts: 27

PostPosted: Mon Mar 22, 2010 4:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's less than people think. I'd say 0-20% is true. Hell, I think Poker would fall into that category (the upper bound of it of course), or just above, and Magic has less luck than Poker.
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thedarkness



Joined: 13 Jul 2006
Posts: 580

PostPosted: Mon Mar 22, 2010 6:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

THE GAME IS EXACTLY 18.35356348% LUCK. I did NOT just hit a bunch of random number keys and put a decimal between the second and third digits. Shut up.

Two things people ought to know... One reason why professional players are always at big deal tournaments is because they get PAID to ACCEPT their INVITATIONS. For BEING PROS. They don't HAVE to qualify for them. Ask PV if you think I'm full of it, he'll tell you. It's not like it's a big secret, it's good business.

Second reason is that it's not like ALL of them do well EVERY time. There's probably more than 20% luck in the game. I'd say it's something like 50% by default, but you can alter how much luck is involved by not sucking. Yes, that's right..practice can make you better at Magic. WTF?!

Trotsky hit the nail on the head. The difference between the normal shmucks like you and me and the pros like PV and half of Japan is how much goes through their heads how fast. If you can make your opponent think what you want them to, there's a lot less luck than you or I would have with the EXACT same hand at any given time.
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FrostFire



Joined: 26 Jan 2010
Posts: 54

PostPosted: Mon Mar 22, 2010 6:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I like your topic trotsky. And part of my reason for saying quite of bit of luck is now involved with magic is the direction of WOTC. With the rules change of m10 it seems they took "tricks" away. Negating the advantage of the "quick thinkers". While still a person who can flow through probability in their head rapidly will certainly have an advantage. It seems not so much so. I think in the coming Pro Tours and Gp's we will see how many of the same faces in t8's. That's a fairly good indicator if this game is still more skill based, or luck.
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Lunari_
Level 3 Judge


Joined: 27 Apr 2006
Posts: 82

PostPosted: Mon Mar 22, 2010 7:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This question is impossible to answer, unless it is assumed that each player plays perfectly, in which case it is 100%.

If both of them play imperfectly, it is relative to their difference in skill. If the players are of equal skill level, should it be 100%? No, because either player could gain a huge advantage by playing better, in which case there is very little luck and it's in the players hands. How much would you say there is luck in Magic if Jon Finkel played against someone who has just embarked on his Magic career?

Trotsky1: What happens if they have a 2nd Esper Charm or they Cryptic your Negate? If your opponent has a Cryptic and an Ultimatum (which is NOT 100% despite you seeming to think it is), you will almost assuredly lose the game no matter what your play is so you might as well play to your outs and hope that he doesn't have the nuts (and the difference between hoping to topdeck a counter and hoping to topdeck a Mind Spring isn't really that big). What if he, for example, wants to force through a Broodmate instead of an Ultimatum? It is also ridiculous to assume that you know your opponents decklist card by card when you're playing in a tournament, so arguments concerning the particular list presented should be disregarded. There are many possible scenarios which you are simply overlooking by saying that he must have an Ultimatum and a Cryptic.

That said, I do not know what the correct play is there, but at least I'm not arrogant enough to think that I'd be 100% right without a shadow of a doubt and that everyone else must be wrong. There is also a lot of information that could've been gained during the game which is not presented in your explanation of the situation.
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OldBear



Joined: 12 Apr 2005
Posts: 1840

PostPosted: Tue Mar 23, 2010 7:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is the 3rd esper charm of the game, your playing to top deck either 1 cryptic, 2 negate, 1 broken ambitions, at which point they cryptic you counter your back in the game they only have ll ands enough for cruel+cryptic. I gave both lists at start the 5cc list has no negate it in yet another skill to magic figuring out what is and whats not in your opponents list, here i gave it to you.

It's not arrogance but experince of control mirrors that allows me know they 100% have cruel and cryptic maybe I exagerrate but its like 99.999%.

The infos all there, magic is a battle of information.


Your playing a t2 match vs an opponent of reasonable skill its game 1 the game has gone long you are playing swans have 14 lands in play and ample of all necessary colours as does your opponent who is playing 5cc control though he only has 11 lands. You have already used 3 cryptic command and 2 broken ambitions, your opponent has used 3 broken ambitions and 1 cryptic command. You have thwarted 2 of this attempt to play a brood mate dragon and he has stopped 1 swans and 2 jaces from resolving. It the end of your turn, your hand is 1 shivan reef 1 island 1 mind spring, 1 negate, 1 remove soul, you’ve been sand bagging lands as you have hit a rut of lands and are already well a head in the mana race and want to give the impression your hand has more gas in than it does. Your opponent has 6 cards in hand and choose to play esper charm, his 3rd of the game opting to make you discard two cards what do you do and why?

Your list

3x Plumeveil
3x Swans of Bryn Argoll
3x Broken Ambitions
4x Cryptic Command

4x Cascade Bluffs
4x Crumbling Necropolis
1x Ghitu Encampment
5x Island
1x Mountain
3x Mutavault
4x Reflecting Pool
4x Shivan Reef
4x Jace Beleren
2x Incinerate
2x Negate
2x Remove Soul
3x Volcanic Fallout
4x Pyroclasm
2x Mind Spring
2x Seismic Assault

Opponents list

3 sunken ruins
4 vivid creek
3 vivid marsh
3 vivid meadow
1 vivid crag
4 reflecting pool
2 mystic gate
1 cascade bluffs
2 exotic orchard
3 island
4 broodmate dragon
2 cruel ultimatum
4 mulldrifter
4 volcanic fallout
2 wall of reverence
2 plume veil
4 esper charm
4 broken ambitions
4 cryptic command

1 pithing needle
1 terror
1 ajani venegant
1 path to exile

I maybe should bold the entire list as its all relevant in a way put im just doing key bits to question, ie no negate.
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Lunari_
Level 3 Judge


Joined: 27 Apr 2006
Posts: 82

PostPosted: Tue Mar 23, 2010 11:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Why is it impossible that they have drawn all 4 Charms? You also haven't mentioned what exactly means "the game has gone long". Your play isn't any better than the other plays if the opponent Cryptics your Negate, which could be and probably is a perfectly reasonable play on his part. Depending on how long the game has gone, he could easily have 2 Cryptics in hand, in which case it would almost certainly be right for him to counter the Negate. He could also have 0. They don't always have it.

If it isn't clear by now, my point is that if you assume that your opponent has both Cryptic and Cruel, you are still likely to lose. You might as well make the play that gives you the best chance of winning in case your opponent hasn't drawn optimally.

Also, what if they are trying to force through a 3rd Broodmate instead of a Cruel Ultimatum? If he is, you just dug your own grave by spending the Negate instead of discarding excess lands.

"I gave both lists at start the 5cc list has no negate it in yet another skill to magic figuring out what is and whats not in your opponents list, here i gave it to you. "

The scenario is still unrealistic, especially considering the nature of 5 color control as a deck. 5cc is very dynamic and everyone has a different take on it. Almost no two players play the exact same 75, so you shouldn't expect to know their deck card by card just because you've "figured it out from what you've seen in the game so far".
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OldBear



Joined: 12 Apr 2005
Posts: 1840

PostPosted: Tue Mar 23, 2010 11:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

They have 11 mana they cant cryptic your negate, they play cruel 7 mana, you play mindspring, they cryptic, they now have no mana left for a second cryptic. so if you have drawn one of your 4 outs Mindspring resolves.

Esper charming on discard mode makes no sense if they are trying to force through a broodmate dragon. It only makes sense if they are trying to empty your entire hand with cruel. This is how you know they have cruel.

Yes you would not have all the information in a real situation but that detracts nothing from the point or what its trying to demonstrate you do in this situation and its about how you use that information.

Blind hope your opponent is not going to have the cards all his play is suggesting he does in a control mirror which has gone long so hes had plenty of time to sculpt his hand, is not going to win games.
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Jag4



Joined: 17 May 2008
Posts: 45

PostPosted: Tue Mar 23, 2010 12:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

As with most games that involve chance, there is an element of luck in Magic, but you can't rely on luck alone winning a game, most people will lose generally because of a mistake.

Ref the pro factor look at poker pro's, poker is a more random game than Magic but are pro's who have been playing for thirty years plus and still doing well year upon year, despite the influx of new, younger and more aggresive players who play odds rather than the man.

It narks me that people complain about mana-screw, or 'the idiot ripped a lightning bolt of the top of his libary to finish me off when I was at three life with his mono red deck.' If these people played chess they'd still complain about bad luck because something such as a fly briefly buzzed around their head when they were thinking about a move and it caused them to lose concentration and make a mistake.


Jag
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Lunari_
Level 3 Judge


Joined: 27 Apr 2006
Posts: 82

PostPosted: Tue Mar 23, 2010 2:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Trotsky1 wrote:
They have 11 mana they cant cryptic your negate, they play cruel 7 mana, you play mindspring, they cryptic, they now have no mana left for a second cryptic. so if you have drawn one of your 4 outs Mindspring resolves.


11 mana is enough for Esper Charm + Cryptic and YOU were talking about Negating that Esper Charm.
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OldBear



Joined: 12 Apr 2005
Posts: 1840

PostPosted: Tue Mar 23, 2010 3:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes it is if they make that play you are screwed but alot of people would not. However with out negating the esper charm you are screwed even if they do not make that play.

If they do cryptic the esper charm they almost do certainly have 2 cryptics in hand.

Chance at 4 outs (4 reamining counters) with danger of zero outs if they have double cryptic bearing in mind they have already played one vs chance at one out (2nd spring) .

Only a really terrible player is going to waste one of his two ultimatums with no counter back up so i think that is a mute point. I said he was of reasonable skill, I know thats subjective to everyone but there is no real way of quantifying skill.

If he is trying to force through broodmate great you have a remove soul in hand, he goes for mate, you remove soul he cryptics. You untap and mindspring for 10!

Its a bad situation your in but neagting gives you a small advantage and in this game you take every edge you can get.

However anyone being able to see that in the time its takes in tourni play would be amazing but agree or disagree with the play i think the depth of the discussion still makes the point, the plays are alot less obvious then you think and there are alot to factor in, in a very small period of time. And there are no plays beyond question and its when we stop questioning and thinking about our plays that we start to make mistakes and not even see them.
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