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wtf is wizards doing?


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Dracon_ian



Joined: 13 May 2008
Posts: 37

PostPosted: Mon Jun 02, 2008 9:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

They will print less though. If tournements do suffer from this one less common then wizards will hopefully do something about.
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DeTeReR



Joined: 10 Apr 2005
Posts: 2

PostPosted: Mon Jun 02, 2008 10:45 am    Post subject: Prices might be lower! Reply with quote

Maybe I'm being very daft, but I think that these changes could make constructed magic cheaper.

IF (and this is a big if) Wizards sticks to what MaRo said about which cards will be mythic, then it is unlikely that any of them is a 4 of in LOTs of decks. This does seem possible since expensive "cool" cards might be good, but don't often go in lots of different decks.

Normal rares will be less rare than they are now, therefore they'll be cheaper.

Also, with less cards in a big set, which gets drafted all year, the cards from it will be even easier to get hold of. By the end of the next magic year, we'll have more of each of the rares from Shards.

D
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Orlandu



Joined: 25 Sep 2004
Posts: 197

PostPosted: Mon Jun 02, 2008 11:33 am    Post subject: Write! Reply with quote

I've already written wizards marketting, and sent copies to MaRo and Devin Low (not that the latter two have any real say in this, but even so). I'd suggest that everyone that cares enough to take 5 minutes do so. And keep your letter civil, professional, and to the point. No wtf magic r ded!!11! if ya know what I mean Wink
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nico
Administrator


Joined: 28 Oct 2003
Posts: 837

PostPosted: Mon Jun 02, 2008 12:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Deterer, you might be right, and at worst the total pare percentage will stay the same. I read the GoodGamery boards, and there is an interesting piece of math there:

quasius on goodgamery boards wrote:
Unless someone wants to prove my math wrong (and a C+P MTGS post won't do it), here's how I figure it comparing Shards to Lorwyn (ignoring foils on both sides):

Lorwyn-
80 rares (1 every pack)

Shards-
53 rares (7/8 = 0.875 chance of rare in pack)
15 mythic rares (1/8 = 0.125 chance of mythic rare in pack)


So if a card has a chance of being in a pack of (1 / num_of_<rarity>) * (chance_of_<rarity>_in_pack):

Chance of a certain Lorwyn rare in pack = (1/80) * 1 = 0.0125.
Chance of a certain Shards rare in pack = (1/53) * 0.875 = 0.0165
Chance of a certain Shards mythic rare in pack = (1/15) * 0.125 = 0.0083

So a Shards mythic rare is 0.0083 / 0.0125 = 0.66x as common (or 1.51x as rare) as a Lorwyn rare.
And a Shards rare is 0.0165 / 0.0125 = 1.32x as common (or 0.76x as rare) as a Lorwyn rare.


This means that the bulk of the rares are more easily available than before while a few superrares are harder to get. If wizards is doing their things the right way (and I don't think a company that is on top of the ccg market for so long can be underestimated) The net gain will be more influx from new players that are atracted by the mythic rares (timmys and ex yugioh players for example), that spend a lot more money, wich will mean there will be more cards in circulation so there also will be more rares on the secondary market.

Greetz Nico
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DeTeReR



Joined: 10 Apr 2005
Posts: 2

PostPosted: Mon Jun 02, 2008 1:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The success of this basically depends on Wizards not making a mythic goyf. If that happens, then the Future sight problem will happen, but much worse (Everything else in the set devalued when lots of the set is opened to find one card).

Wizards doing things right seems reasonable, my worry is that it only takes ONE slip, and this problem happens again, but worse than before.

I agree with Orlandu- Write to Wizards.
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nico
Administrator


Joined: 28 Oct 2003
Posts: 837

PostPosted: Mon Jun 02, 2008 1:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think people are concentrating too much on the upper end of the price spectrum. On average the rares will be "less rare". This means that the average price of the rares will go down (as will the price of every other rarity). Every set will have their chase rares, especially if there is a block PT, because even though there will be few people playing in PT, the masses want to have the popular card.
The only real mistake that wizards can make is printing a universally usable powercard, like mutavault. I think printing a card like tarmaghoyff is a mistake in any given setup, but when it is done from shards of allara or later, and it is put in the rare slot, the prize of it will not be as high as it is now.
Also, Maro mentioned that there will be a huge percentage of timmy cards in the mythic rare slot, thus appealing to the yugioh crowd out there.

Greetz Nico
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coolcreep



Joined: 18 Feb 2006
Posts: 408

PostPosted: Mon Jun 02, 2008 3:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Anyone who says that 14 card boosters will hurt limited is a bad drafter. With the number of playables in sets going up and up, getting 23 playables will still be no problem in shards of alara or w/e, especially compared to older sets. Also, you will be taking the land 15 pick every time, and you dont usually get nameless inversions or burn trails 15th (unless your pods are clinically awful). If anything, 14 card packs might help draft, because getting a good deck might actually require skill again.
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TugaChampion



Joined: 26 Jan 2006
Posts: 419

PostPosted: Mon Jun 02, 2008 4:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well and as long as they don't print really bad cards that will never be even useful as SB cards (herbal poultice anyone?) the lands don't hurt that much. And with less commons, the top commons would be to easy to appear if there were 11 of them. I guess only time will tell if this is good or not. In the meantime let's ponder about it XD.
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gypsy



Joined: 15 Jun 2007
Posts: 921

PostPosted: Mon Jun 02, 2008 4:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

we can only ponder once about it
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MaksymG



Joined: 24 Apr 2006
Posts: 174

PostPosted: Mon Jun 02, 2008 4:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wow people make a lot of really stupid comments in particular regarding the mystic rares.

Ok to clear things up,

a mystic rare is not 8 times more rare than any normal rare due to the fact that there are ropughly 3.5-4 times less mystic rares than normal rares, thus although it is a 1/8 chance to actually get one, the chances of getting a PARTICULAR mystic rare are only approximately 2 times more than the chances for getting any PARTICULAR normal rare. Having said that, wizards stated that they do not want utility cards to be printed on that level that go into every deck. Although this is a fine sentiment we will still have to see if it will stay true. The rarity change is rational because there should be something that divides tarmogoyf and akroma from a flavour perspective. While tarmogoyf is simply a better card from a tournament point of view, cards like Akroma hold certain values associated with them and as such it makes sense to elevate them to another level.

Regarding the restrictions, it all makes sense save ponder. Brainstorm filters your hand and with fetches it is absolute nuts in vintage considering the power level of cards. Scroll is perhaps one of the best tutors in vintage because it is blue and generally it can grab the most powerful cards: time walk, recall, fow, flash. Even with the restrictions on flash, having 4x scrolls and a number of other tutors almost ensures you see a "copy" of flash in your opponent hand. As such all the restrictions make sense but ponder is just ridiculous. It does not filter your hand, essentially it is a senseis diving top for one spin and perhaps and activation with a shuffle. IN fact you can do more versatile things with top than with ponder. The only possible reason I see for restricting ponder is the possibilites with storm decks but even there it pales by comparison with other vintage cards.
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ransom3



Joined: 01 Oct 2007
Posts: 174

PostPosted: Mon Jun 02, 2008 5:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think everything they're doing makes sense from Wizards' point of view, but as someone who's played MTG for 10 years, it's a bit saddening.

I don't agree with the idea of putting a basic land in each booster.
It's easy enough to buy 200 lands for $5 or less anywhere online.
Maybe if they reduce the price of the pack by to 14/15 of its original value, since they are only giving us 14/15 as many cards.

I don't agree with the idea of the mythic rare. First of all, it sounds "uber-lame" if I may say so. Secondly, as someone stated already, it will also drive prices up. Prices are high enough already. I played the Ten Commandments deck in the LRW block trial yesterday. I was thinking about building it in RL but definitely decided against that idea when I realized the mana base alone would cost me about $140.

I don't like the new restrictions for Vintage. Period.

I'm not sure how I feel about printing fewer cards each year. I think fewer sets should be printed, Standard feels like it is just settling in, and then BAM! a new block rolls in and one rolls out. If the number of cards are reduced in each set, but the number of sets per year stays the same, it doesn't really make a difference.

As someone stated above, this may bring in new players, but it will cause the loss of many experienced players. I for one have been unhappy with the direction Wizards has taken with MTG since Ravnica block. Since Lorwyn block, I think the game has been downright ridiculous compared to the past of MTG.
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Stucco



Joined: 14 Mar 2005
Posts: 563

PostPosted: Mon Jun 02, 2008 6:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

gypsy wrote:
we can only ponder once about it


hah! touche!
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shadow483



Joined: 21 Jun 2007
Posts: 57

PostPosted: Mon Jun 02, 2008 6:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think people might be missing the point of printing fewer cards. While the number of different cards might go down, the total volume may not change. Meaning that before Wizards printed X amount of land X amount of Tarmogoyf etc. Now that they have fewer cards, it may be easier to get rares as with fewer cards, boosters repeat more easily. For example, when drafting Triple morningtide, cards like ponder and shard volley appear frequently sometimes as being commons they are numerous and being a small set they have a higher chance of appearing in a booster. Now that a set is smaller, similar rares appear more frequently as the smaller set allows for a higher chance of getting a rare. This being said, I think that getting a mystic rare might be harder to open in a pack, but if you buy a lot of packs, you might find yourself getting better cards more frequently. Now if wizards is decreasing the total volume of cards being printed then thats a stupid idea.
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Orlandu



Joined: 25 Sep 2004
Posts: 197

PostPosted: Tue Jun 03, 2008 12:17 am    Post subject: To Nico Reply with quote

To Nico: As a tournament player I'm not worried about the lower end of the rare spectrum. It's only the upper end that concerns me. I have no problem shelling out 20 bucks for a playset of something, and trading for 5-10 dollar cards is really not very hard. It's when you have multiple must-have cards at the 20-50 dollar range in a format, along with several at the 8-12 that makes things more difficult.

As has been said, the only real problem I have with the mythic rare issue is when they mess up and put something too powerful there, or if they put a card there that they didn't realize was part of some stupid combo. And don't tell me they dont' do that, they had no idea dragonstorm would be as good as it was (although, granted, they didn't realize that pairing it with gigadrowse solved the control matchup), and etc.

Actually thinking about taking a break from paper magic to see how all this crap pans out. WoW CCG seems really interesting, with alot of great ideas, and from what people are telling me, a very similar system to MTG.
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XSquad



Joined: 21 Aug 2007
Posts: 21

PostPosted: Tue Jun 03, 2008 5:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This mythic rare idea is probably from yugioh, which sets a bad precedent. Quite frankly yugioh is an awful TCG and should not be considered an "industry standard." I am not that familiar with yugioh but from what I know the really good playable rares cost in the hundreds of U.S dollars. A similar problem of hyperinflation could plague Magic, especially if planeswalkers or some kind of two drop bomb (bitterblossom and goyf) are "mythic rares." Meh, I guess with oil prices making shipping a hassle and more costly, WOTC wants more money. Business is business I suppose, but this an ominous sign for the fate of MTG..........
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