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Mind Funeral Math?


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Daffie999



Joined: 08 Jun 2008
Posts: 26

PostPosted: Fri May 29, 2009 11:47 pm    Post subject: Mind Funeral Math? Reply with quote

Who would like to do the math?

Another post had me thinking about how Mind Funeral could be useful other than simply trying to mill. Obviously there could be some strategy involving your opponents graveyard, but I was thinking about the static number used with each Mind Funeral, four lands. The thought being that you could alter the probabilities of their deck to increase a flood or screw. Would it be different for a 20 land deck vs a 26 land deck?
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onecleanceli



Joined: 27 Mar 2005
Posts: 398

PostPosted: Sat May 30, 2009 1:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

are you wanting math values on probabilities of how many cards on average you're going to get, per mind funeral, pending how many lands are in their deck?
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mTk-Away
Level 3 Judge


Joined: 02 Apr 2005
Posts: 89

PostPosted: Sat May 30, 2009 1:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Roughly, every Cards/Lands card is a land. So, if you have 23 lands in 60 card deck, every 2.3rd ("two point third") land is a card.

So, you should pretty much mill for Cards/Lands*3.5 (that 3.5 comes from average beetween "third" and "fourth", as you may draw the first land anywhere beetween 1 and 3.5). In a 26 land deck that's about 8 cards.

This isn't of course real maths, but that's about the way it is.
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onecleanceli



Joined: 27 Mar 2005
Posts: 398

PostPosted: Sat May 30, 2009 3:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

just use simple numbers... take a 60 card deck, 20 lands... 1/3 of every card is a land.. mind funeral goes to 4 lands... if you hit a land first, and stay with the average percent, you'll end up getting 9 cards + the 4 lands, for a total of 13 cards... the more lands you have in the deck, the higher percent you'll hit a land over a non-land, so your average milled cards per funeral will be lower....
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tcook589



Joined: 26 Oct 2005
Posts: 64

PostPosted: Sat May 30, 2009 11:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

for 2 cards and 8 mana, I want to do something more than return a Rhox War Monk/ Murderous Redcap / Bloodbraid Elf, for one attack.

Give up on mind funeral, btfw.

The odds of milling the card they need into their graveyard and the odds of milling the cards they don't need into their graveyard are nearly the same.

As has been previously mentioned, you're not affecting the board, hand size, or life totals. Unless you plan to win by milling, cards that mill an opponent as their primary use are no good.
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clayparson



Joined: 04 Sep 2004
Posts: 68

PostPosted: Sat May 30, 2009 2:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

man this card would wreck vintage belcher.

seriously though, i don't think it can be abused in any meaningful way.
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getmatt201



Joined: 01 Nov 2006
Posts: 100

PostPosted: Sat May 30, 2009 6:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mind funeral vs turbo fog = GG
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Daffie999



Joined: 08 Jun 2008
Posts: 26

PostPosted: Sat May 30, 2009 8:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

What I was getting at was a form of land destruction. Not to gain tempo but to actually get rid of all your opponents lands. 1 card for 4 lands seems like a good place to start. Not that LD is a great strategy in the current meta. If a deck had 20 lands 2-3 funerals gets half their lands. Was just a thought.

As for what Bftw is saying, you probably won't like me much either... I agree with everyone else that you can't use mind funeral as a way to get rid of "bombs" in a deck. It's random! Unless you are manipulating their deck in some other way and then casting mind funeral to dump specific threats, it's just random! However, I will say that vs a control deck knowing that you just dumped 1-2 Ultimatums or a bunch of counters, removal, or burn does help you remove the "bluffing" element of magic. Games are won more often when you have a better idea what your opponent has in their hand... but still there are better cards for that than mind funeral.
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TacoMaster



Joined: 27 Jul 2005
Posts: 108

PostPosted: Sun May 31, 2009 9:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

getmatt201 wrote:
mind funeral vs turbo fog = GG


Fact. I sided it for Regionals. That match was pretty entertaining. Smile Game 1 killed him with my Jace. Game 2, killed him with Mind Funeral.
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Bartok



Joined: 06 May 2008
Posts: 3

PostPosted: Mon Jun 01, 2009 4:38 am    Post subject: Formula Reply with quote

I created a formula to calculate the exact value for it for a danish magic site.

http://www.faraos.dk/magic/images/webboard_full.phtml?id=7625

The explanation is in danish, but the formula is the one with Px=Sigma something

The formula is for a 40 card limited deck with 17 lands where Px=9 1/9

but u can chance it to any deck setup

If u wanna chance it for another deck, change the numbers like this

17! switch 17 to the number of lands in the deck.
13! switch 13 to the number of lands in the deck -4
23! switch 23 to the number of nonlands in the deck
(23-x)! switch 23 to the number of nonlands in the deck
40! switch 40 to the number of cards in the deck
(36-x)! switch 36 to the number of cards in the deck - 4
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