The MODERN metagame in 2011 - Magic: the Gathering article

Written by CMA-Flippi on December 17, 2011

Players always want to figure out how to win. They want to maximize their chances of winning. One important choice along the way to improving those chances is what deck you chose. However, you cannot chose a deck in a vacuum. The optimal deck depends on the metagame. To reiterate: it's a bad idea to bring a knife to a gunfight.

1. What makes MODERN the most interesting format at the moment?
2. The MODERN metagame on magic-league
3. A look at the most played decks
4. Innovation from magic-league
5. The moral of the story

1. What makes MODERN the most interesting format at the moment?
The next PTQ season is MODERN. Since Worlds day 3, where Modern was played, almost a month has passed. Until the first PTQs, it's only two to three weeks. The first MODERN Grand Prix in 2012, GP Lincoln, is in the middle of February already. The Pro Tour (Honolulu is Standard/Draft) being turned into a much more private event with much fewer average players makes MODERN the format of choice at the moment. Magic-League announced an Invitational played in that format with several MODERN trials in the qualifying season. Since the most recent bannings (September 20th), magic-league hosted more than 150 MODERN tournaments which produces a sample size of 1332 decks. With data of all matches played by these decks, I am able to analyze the current MODERN metagame.

2. The MODERN metagame on magic-league
Until worlds on November 19th, MODERN was not very relevant to any competitive player. This made Worlds show few to no innovations. The top 3 decks made more than 50% of the metagame, with Aggro decks all over the place, less Control decks and only few Combo decks. Zoo was the one deck to beat. Beat it and your deck is good, lose to it and your deck is a pile.
..Meanwhile on magic-league, MODERN proved to be a diverse format. Users try many new ideas on a daily basis. Although only a few of them succeed, good decks quickly make it to the average players' mind. With Martyr Proclamation, Past in Flames, Loam Control and more recently Caw Wrath, at least four decks climbed up in the metagame statistics since Worlds. Over the course of three months, the metagame on magic-league looks as follows:

Metagame Sep 20 – Dec 15			Deckname	Total	%
Deckname	Total	%	Project Y	32	2
Jund	79	6	NLU	31	2
GB Cloud	70	5	Merfolk	30	2
Teachings	66	5	Past in Flames	29	2
Tribal Zoo	65	5	Solar Flare	28	2
Affinity	59	4	Bant	24	2
Big Zoo	51	4	Reanimator	24	2
RDW	50	4	Ad Nauseam	23	2
Martyr Proc	48	4	CawWrath	23	2
RG Eldrazi Tron	45	3	Gifts Aggro	17	1
Moon Zoo	39	3	Living End	16	1
URG Junk	39	3	Pyromancer	16	1
DeceiverTwin	38	3	Swans Assault	16	1
Loam Control	38	3	UW Tron	14	1
UW Control	37	3
Gifts Control	36	3	All other decks	249	19

New to modern? Here's example decklists of the three most popular decks.

Jund by bludwurk
Main Deck		Sideboard
2 Blackcleave Cliffs 1 Blood Crypt 2 Forest 4 Grove of the Burnwillows 1 Mountain 2 Overgrown Tomb 1 Raging Ravine 1 Stomping Ground 3 Swamp 4 Treetop Village 1 Twilight Mire 4 Verdant Catacombs	4 Dark Confidant 2 Eternal Witness 2 Kitchen Finks 4 Tarmogoyf 4 Bloodbraid Elf 3 Go for the Throat 4 Lightning Bolt 4 Punishing Fire 1 Garruk Wildspeaker 4 Inquisition of Kozilek 2 Maelstrom Pulse	2 Kitchen Finks 3 Nihil Spellbomb 3 Ancient Grudge 3 Dismember 2 Deathmark 2 Duress

GB Death Cloud by Nico Bohny
Main Deck		Sideboard
3 Forest 1 Golgari Rot Farm 2 Marsh Flats 1 Oran-Rief, the Vastwood 3 Overgrown Tomb 4 Swamp 3 Treetop Village 2 Twilight Mire 1 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth 4 Verdant Catacombs 3 Garruk Wildspeaker 3 Liliana of the Veil	2 Damnation 2 Death Cloud 3 Inquisition of Kozilek 1 Maelstrom Pulse 2 Slaughter Pact 2 Smother 4 Thoughtseize 2 Eternal Witness 4 Kitchen Finks 4 Sakura-Tribe Elder 4 Tarmogoyf	3 Dark Confidant 2 Deathmark 1 Inquisition of Kozilek 1 Maelstrom Pulse 2 Nature's Claim 3 Nihil Spellbomb 2 Obstinate Baloth 1 Smother

Tribal Zoo by ovmlcabrera
Main Deck		Sideboard
4 Arid Mesa 1 Blood Crypt 1 Breeding Pool 1 Hallowed Fountain 1 Marsh Flats 4 Misty Rainforest 1 Sacred Foundry 4 Scalding Tarn 1 Steam Vents 1 Stomping Ground 1 Temple Garden 1 Forest	1 Plains 2 Kird Ape 4 Steppe Lynx 4 Tarmogoyf 4 Wild Nacatl 3 Knight of the Reliquary 3 Snapcaster Mage 4 Lightning Bolt 4 Lightning Helix 2 Spell Pierce 4 Tribal Flames 4 Path to Exile	2 Combust 2 Deathmark 1 Kitchen Finks 2 Mindbreak Trap 2 Negate 2 Ranger of Eos 2 Seal of Primordium 2 Ancient Grudge

Counting only recent tournaments pictures a metagame more prone to variance, yet more up to date:

Metagame Dec 01 – Dec 15			Deckname	Total	%
Deckname	Total	%	CawWrath	16	2
Tribal Zoo	46	7	RDW	15	2
Jund	40	6	DeceiverTwin	15	2
Teachings	39	6	Merfolk	15	2
Martyr Proc	38	6	Project Y	14	2
RG Eldrazi Tron	32	5	Bant	12	2
URG Junk	28	4	Moon Zoo	10	2
Affinity	26	4	UW Tron	10	2
Gifts Control	26	4	Reanimator	8	1
GB Cloud	21	3	Living End	8	1
UW Control	21	3	Swans Assault	8	1
Past in Flames	21	3	Gifts Aggro	7	1
Big Zoo	19	3	Pyromancer	4	1
Loam Control	19	3	NLU	3	0
Ad Nauseam	19	3
Solar Flare	17	3	All other decks	105	16

The decks that lost most popularity recently are marked red. The decks with recent increase in popularity are marked green.

3. A look at the most popular decks

Winning chances		Deck	Wins
Deck	Wins	Gifts Control	52%
UW Control	68%	GB Cloud	51%
URG Junk	67%	Reanimator	51%
Martyr Proc	66%	UW Tron	50%
Loam Control	65%	Gifts Aggro	50%
Past in Flames	64%	CawWrath	46%
Big Zoo	63%	Teachings	45%
DeceiverTwin	61%	Living End	44%
Affinity	60%	NLU	44%
Merfolk	57%	Project Y	43%
RG Eldrazi Tron	56%	Solar Flare	40%
Moon Zoo	56%	Bant	38%
Swans Assault	56%	RDW	35%
Ad Nauseam	55%	Pyromancer	32%
Jund	53%
Tribal Zoo	52%	All other decks	46%

Due to the nature of the decks, homebrew decks rarely become competitive. This explains why decks in the category "all other decks" (decks that were played by less than 1% of the metagame) have a bad winning chance. That's also why most decks listed by name have a positive record. Winning 51% of its matches does not make a deck good however! In a comparison "overall <-> recent" metagame, a decrease of popularity of GB Death Cloud, RDW, Project Y, DeceiverTwin and Next Level Blue (NLU) is clearly visible. Reasoning this change is easy: Of corse if you lose much with a deck, you stop playing it. Death Cloud scratches the 50% mark, RDW, Project Y and NLU don't even reach 45%. In 100 matches, they each win at most 45 matches.
There's two unexpected numbers in the winning chances however.
DeceiverTwin reaches a remarkable 61% winning chance, yet lost popularity. At the same time, Teachings continues to be one of the top played decks, yet one of the worst!
Here's example decklits of some of the best decks of the current metagame:

UW Control by tarat
Main Deck		Sideboard
4 Celestial Colonnade 3 Hallowed Fountain 3 Plains 1 Scalding Tarn 4 Glacial Fortress 4 Tectonic Edge 3 Mystic Gate 1 Arid Mesa 3 Island 1 Phantasmal Image 3 Snapcaster Mage 3 Kitchen Finks	2 Sun Titan 3 Vendilion Clique 1 Gideon Jura 3 Spell Snare 1 Elspeth, Knight-Errant 4 Path to Exile 4 Mana Leak 3 Cryptic Command 1 Oblivion Ring 2 Wrath of God 2 Jace Beleren 1 Dismember	1 Gideon Jura 2 Wrath of God 1 Jace Beleren 1 Kitchen Finks 3 Disenchant 2 Flashfreeze 3 Leyline of Sanctity 2 Surgical Extraction

URG Tempo by infernuz
Main Deck		Sideboard
2 Breeding Pool 1 Mountain 2 Cascade Bluffs 1 Forest 1 Hinterland Harbor 5 Island 3 Misty Rainforest 4 Scalding Tarn 2 Steam Vents 3 Vendilion Clique 4 Delver of Secrets	4 Snapcaster Mage 2 Spellstutter Sprite 4 Tarmogoyf 2 Sleight of Hand 2 Cryptic Command 2 Deprive 2 Flame Slash 4 Lightning Bolt 4 Mana Leak 4 Serum Visions 2 Burst Lightning	3 Ancient Grudge 3 Mindbreak Trap 2 Spell Pierce 2 Surgical Extraction 2 Sword of Feast and Famine 3 Threads of Disloyalty

Past in Flames by darkwizard42
Main Deck		Sideboard
2 Halimar Depths 4 Scalding Tarn 4 Misty Rainforest 2 Island 1 Mountain 2 Steam Vents 1 Breeding Pool 2 Cascade Bluffs 4 Past in Flames 4 Gitaxian Probe	4 Remand 4 Grapeshot 4 Serum Visions 4 Manamorphose 4 Seething Song 4 Pyretic Ritual 4 Desperate Ritual 3 Pact of Negation 3 Peer Through Depths	1 Pact of Negation 1 Peer Through Depths 3 Firespout 3 Echoing Truth 4 Empty the Warrens 1 Burst of Speed 2 Ancient Grudge

4. Innovation on magic-league
Loam Control and Martyr Proclamation saw play in late September already, although they were not successful. In early October then, Loam Control won its first mini while Martyr disappeared again to come back in November along with URG Tempo. November was the month all three decks quickly became popular.
A turning point of the triumphal procession of the three decks probably was the November 22th MODERN Trial, the first Trial with the Worlds metagame known brought new devastating metagame answers. Only two Zoo decks (2-1, 1-1) made it past round 1 in the tournament. The same happened to Affinity. Worlds showed a metagame full of Wild Nacatls and Lightning Bolts. Magic-league once again provides the solution.
Especially in its early stages, Martyr Proclamation glanced: It won 76% of its matches in November, URG Tempo even won 80%. Loam Control needed some time to evolve and became great not until December: 50% Matchwin in November, 75% in Devember. Overall, they still show excellent results

Deck	Wins
Martyr Proclamation	66%
URG Junk	67%
Loam Control	65%

Martyr Proclamation by DSD-Steve
Main Deck		Sideboard
12 Plains 4 Flagstones of Trokair 4 Ghost Quarter 2 Emeria, the Sky Ruin 2 Mistveil Plains 4 Squadron Hawk 4 Serra Ascendant 4 Martyr of Sands 4 Ranger of Eos	2 Kitchen Finks 1 Sun Titan 1 Weathered Wayfarer 1 Figure of Destiny 3 Wrath of God 3 Proclamation of Rebirth 3 Oblivion Ring 4 Path to Exile 2 Elspeth, Knight-Errant	1 Kami of False Hope 4 Leyline of Sanctity 4 Mana Tithe 3 Suppression Field 3 Ghostly Prison

Burning Loam by Truth-
Main Deck		Sideboard
1 Blood Crypt 2 Fire-Lit Thicket 2 Forest 4 Grove of the Burnwillows 2 Misty Rainforest 1 Mountain 3 Overgrown Tomb 2 Stomping Ground 1 Swamp 1 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth 4 Verdant Catacombs 4 Woodland Cemetery	2 Eternal Witness 4 Kitchen Finks 4 Tarmogoyf 3 Burning Vengeance 2 Dismember 2 Flame Jab 1 Go for the Throat 4 Life from the Loam 3 Liliana of the Veil 2 Maelstrom Pulse 3 Punishing Fire 3 Raven's Crime	1 Go for the Throat 1 Maelstrom Pulse 1 Raven's Crime 2 Grave Titan 3 Obstinate Baloth 1 Thoughtseize 3 Ancient Grudge 3 Duress

5. The moral of the story
Modern is a format that is still changing on weekly basis. MartyrProclamation gives the eminent Zoo decks a hard time, but might disappear again when Aggro becomes less popular. No superordinate archetype is superior in the format. There's good Aggro, Control and Combodecks, as well es mixtures of the deck types. In soon future, I believe Teachings decks will lose its player base, while DeceiverTwin will have a comeback. There has been some discussion on a "necessary ban" of Wild Nacatl or Punishing Fire in MODERN on other magic strategy sites. I explain my opinion of the topic with a drawing of Martyr of Sands and Wild Nacatl:

Martyr > Wild Nacatl

Until next time, there will be a next time, become a better player by playing on magic-league.com, the home of tomorrow's mtg-stars.

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